![]() ![]() If we don’t keep open-minded, we will only pick information that suits us. The benefits of signpost analysis extend beyond understanding long-term risks.Īs I discuss in this recent piece, confirmation bias, which basically involves picking and choosing information that supports your own opinion, is a common trap that prevents good decision-making. Besides understanding when risks are materializing, signpost analysis is a helpful tool for combating confirmation bias and encouraging deep thinking. It also forces you to look at long-term trends that develop slowly and thus are easy to forget about. Instead of reacting and scrambling like the proverbial frog, this early warning system helps you proactively determine the right risk response in an orderly way. Milestones can either be completely qualitative or have some sort of measurable target (i.e., quantitative).Įach milestone serves as an early warning sign that a risk is starting to materialize. There are no particular rules or set number of milestones – over time, you may add some or take others away. However, if the triggers occur as a sequence or chain of events, the end result could be the project coming in way over budget or not being completed.Įach of these early warning signs represent a “milestone” or “sign post marker.” If one of these events were triggered in isolation, it wouldn’t be a huge deal. As you can see, you have the starting point of the project on the left and the possibility of the project’s failure or “budget blowout” on the right. ![]() In the case of VIA Rail Canada, Benoit explains how they currently use signpost analysis to better understand the risk of autonomous vehicles, which if adopted on a mass scale, would be a clear and present danger for a passenger rail line.īelow is a screenshot from the webinar of a sample signpost analysis for a large project.
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